Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcherâs performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Andrew Painter (PHI) vs WSN (W) â 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks â 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 84 pitches.
Iâve heard about Painter for years and itâs thrilling to finally get a proper look at the long-time prospect in his MLB debut against the Nationals. The results did not disappoint â 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks â 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 84 pitches â and I canât quite decide if this is what weâll get moving forward, but I have to ask, can I actually get an accurate view of Painterâs canvas from this one start against a poor lineup?
I donât love starting pitchers in MLB debuts as they often pitch differently than when theyâll have their feet under them following a few starts, and itâs difficult to tell you this is who he will be, for better or for worse. So what do you do? Hold on and enjoy the ride, of course. He has the situation, a cut-fastball at 96/97 mph that isnât bad, allowing for an array of good-not-elite secondaries to be successful. The whole package should work with 88 mph sliders with good sweep but annoying lift, an 81 mph curve he throws with confidence, and a solid changeup that stays down to LHB. Thereâs also the correct approach with sinkers inside to RHB that we barely saw, given the Nationalsâ affinity for left-handed bats.
Heâll get the Giants and Sneks up next, and we can only hope for the best. If the good pitch separation sticks, this will work. The Shag Rug exists and weâll get a few happy mistakes, but thatâs okay. This will help more than hurt.
Sidenote: Happy April Foolsâ day! I hope you enjoyed our yearly tradition where Justin Paradis writes his own version of the SP Roundup and I create his graphic.
Letâs see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Max Fried (NYY) @ SEA (W) â 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks â 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 90 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Velo is still down a tick + two on the cutter, but the command is stellar and he cruised in Seattle. Itâs fun when Fried actually produces early in the year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs CLE (ND) â 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks â 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 87 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. 87 pitches and six frames in his first outing of the year. I donât think heâs going to get babied, yâall. His velocity is down 1-2 ticks, but donât be alarmed. Itâs the first of the year and itâs still quality.
JosĂ© Soriano (LAA) @ CHC (W) â 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks â 10 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 90 pitches.
Duuuuuude, this is awesome. He pulled off the sinker in favor of four-seamers, embracing its extra vert and flat attack angle for 71% strikes and a ridiculous 48% CSW. The curve was fantastic and stayed down, the splitter earned a handful of whiffs, and this was a fun outing against the Cubs. The biggest concern? Just four strikeouts and two hits. In other words, he had the good graces of Koufax across 67% grounders (13 outs on 15 BIP), which is sure to regress given the Angelsâ defense n all. Obviously a pitcher needs hit prevention to have a beneficial outing and maybe Soriano is pitching more effectively to keep the BABIP lower. Why does he have to face Atlanta + Yankees + Padres next? I understand that you feel like you have to, but thatâs a tough sell.
Andre Pallante (STL) vs NYM (W) â 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks â 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.
Wait, this worked? Jeez, take this Gold Star. Heâs made a major transition toward sinkers and sliders against RHB, saving the four-seamer for LHB where it was taken by the passive Mets lineup, and Koufax smiled upon him. This isnât your next big pickup.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) vs LAA (ND) â 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks â 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.
The velocity is still down (just under 91 mph), but we saw more cut and 19/20âł of vert with big separation on the cutter, and weâre here for that. Iâm stoked he was able to produce in some fashion here, even it was super strange to see four walks. Thatâs so not him, and the 61% overall strike rate doesnât match.
Bubba Chandler (PIT) @ CIN (ND) â 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 6 BBs, 6 Ks â 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 81 pitches.
I know you have some nerves given this is your first start out of camp in your career, but jeeeeez, can you get that four-seamer a little lower, please? Itâs such a dope pitch when he doesnât return 58% strikes across 74% usage. 17âł of vert at a low arm angle and cut and good extension and a flat attack angle AND 99 MPH. Just not so high and non-competitive, alright? We barely saw the change and slider here, which are also excellent pitches, but he couldnât wrangle them either, especially the slider (1/8 strikes, missing well upstairs). Thatâs not him, and I canât wait for the games ahead that donât come with so many free passes. But it was a no-hitter! Donât you dare compare him to Ejax. DONâT YOU DARE.
Ryan Feltner (COL) @ TOR (ND) â 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks â 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 47 pitches.
Feltner was struck by a 106mph comebacker, leaving this one early after sitting two ticks higher. Itâs obviously terrible leaving a game like this, but to do so when youâre showing off how much better you are is simply not fair.
Max Scherzer (TOR) vs COL (W) â 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks â 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 83 pitches.
FINALLY. An easy stream that goes exactly as it should. I donât know what took so long. Much appreciated, Scherzer. No, you donât need to hold for the Dodgers, but it may be worthwhile with the Twins and @ ARI after.
Casey Mize (DET) @ ARI (ND) â 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks â 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 93 pitches.
Oh hey, it was alright! His splitter cooked against LHB for 32% SwStr and 68% strikes, while the slider was unexpectedly great at 44% CSW and 72% strikes. Not the best fastballs all around, but if Mize has sliders and splitters on point like this, the Twins and Marlins may roll over easily.
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs BOS (W) â 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks â 8 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 78 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a King Cole. A little more erratic than usual from Brown with his sinker inside the zone (read: not armside), but the Sawx were sleeping at the plate, accepting a 44% called strike rate on the pitch, with two strikeouts looking. How nice of them.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) @ LAD (ND) â 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks â 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 74 pitches.
Is he okay? I was hyped after Bibee flexed a four inch boost in vert with his four-seamer to 18âł last time out, and we actually saw that fantastic pitch here againâŠfor about ten of his fastballs. He had another 4/5 that were far worse and the jury is still out if Bibee will have a much better heater across the season. He also seems to be throwing two different cutters now, which is surely going to get reclassified as an 88/89 mph cutter and a 84-87mph slider, and the slide piece was much better than the harder, high vert cutter. But letâs be real here. After all the haze of his last start, to see Bibee survive in Los Angeles and still give us hope for a better arsenal is really cool. Guess weâre letting it fly for a two-step against the Royals and Atlanta next week, right?
Zach Eflin (BAL) vs TEX (ND) â 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks â 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 74 pitches.
I was so excited for this start. Eflin was sitting 92/93 mph in the spring (over a tick up!) and came out hot, fanning four of his first six batters and looking like the same stud of March. Then the velo took a bit of a hit in the third, and another in the fourth, and despite fanning seven in eleven outs, he left the game early with an elbow issue. I went from stoked and looking ahead to a trio of starts @CHW, vs. SFG, @CLE, to pure pain. Heâs going to hit the IL yâall, and you should just drop him. Sigh.
Kodai Senga (NYM) @ STL (L) â 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks â 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
Remember how we were reporting that Senga was throwing harder in the spring? Yeah, that wasnât smoke and mirrors. The dude was 97/98 mph across 92 pitches here, actually earning whiffs on the pitch at a 19% clip. The cutter was also benefiting at 90/91 mph and 38% CSW, and the ghost-fork, sweeper, and slider boasted eight whiffs and four punchouts, too. Heâs back yaâll. HEâS SO BACK. Heâs even doing the Canibal McSanchez and itâs masking the four-seamer exactly how we want him to. Get pumped for a date in Oracle Park up next.
Aaron Civale (ATH) @ ATL (W) â 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks â 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.
Despite losing 1-2 ticks that Civale really canât lose at this point in his career, he stuck it out for a Win. Those backdoor cutters and curves were clutch against LHB, but you know who we really have to thank. Koufax, you rascal.
Brandon Woodruff (MIL) vs TBR (W) â 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks â 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 67 pitches.
Iâm thrilled to tell you that this felt exactly like the Woodruff you know from last season. Heâs likely going to be limited like this a fair amount, and yet, itâs still productive. Iâd feel great having Woody at this point.
Shane McClanahan (TBR) @ MIL (L) â 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks â 7 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 79 pitches.
Heâs such a good pitcher. Or at least was absurd through four before he walked two with a single and couldnât quite close the door with two outs, leading to all three runs coming in. Ugh. He was likely gassed even if the velocity wasnât showing it, and it may be a few starts before he can cruise without a lapse of command past pitch 65. But that changeup, yâall. 41% CSW and 77% strikes. 95/96 mph velocity (not 94!). Legit sliders is the right spots. Heâs a SWATCH with more velocity. Iâm a McClanaFan.
Janson Junk (MIA) vs CHW (ND) â 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks â 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 79 pitches.
He was up 1-2 ticks here with 19âł of vert and a 1.8 HAVAA andâŠwait. Junk? At 95/96 mph? With a kick-change and 17âł of ride + an 88 mph hyro slider with -5/6 sweep? Uhhhh, this is elite stuff. Dude. WHAT. That four-seamer is blowing my mind right now. Sure, he didnât locate it upstairs and oddly refused to throw it to RHB (16% usage despite those marks?!), but Iâm kinda in disbelief right now. Heâll get the Reds Carpet on Monday and Iâm heavily considering this. Itâs clear that heâs a vastly different pitcher now.
Logan Webb (SFG) @ SDP (ND) â 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks â 10 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 104 pitches.
Oh wow, our first PQS of the season, and of course itâs from Webb. His changeup was way off here at just 35% strikes and heâll find his rhythm soon, donât you worry.
Zack Littell (WSH) @ PHI (L) â 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks â 7 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 75 pitches.
This game began with PJâs effort as an opener and ended with the wake-up call of Littell entering in the sixth for 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 K across 75 pitches. HAISTBMBWT?! Oh, you were hoping for a vulture Win? Did you forget it was Littell, or that he pitched for the Nationals, or that he was facing the Phillies? I DIDNâT THINK, OKAY?!
Erick Fedde (CHW) @ MIA (L) â 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks â 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 80 pitches.
Huge props to Fedde for shelving the four-seamer and going cutter upstairs with changeups down to LHB, but even if you squeeze the most out of the lemon, itâs not enough for a full glass. That almost seems wise. Thereâs something there, Iâm sure of it.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) @ BAL (ND) â 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks â 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 79 pitches.
He got the first two outs of the fifth with ease and three straight hits knocked him out of the game within grasp of a dub. Sigh. At least his stick neck is a thing of the past and his slider is back to being the dopest of dope at 92 mph with a 32% SwStr rate and dotting the corner. As it is often in the first week or two, deGrom was more gassed than usual in the fifth and donât expect that to last throughout the year.
JosĂ© Suarez (ATL) vs ATH (L) â 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks â 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 66 pitches.
This wasnât his best, but even if it was, would it be any different? Probably. Yeah, maybe like a run or two. Welp, see ya later.
GermĂĄn MĂĄrquez (SDP) vs SFG (ND) â 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks â 2 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 65 pitches.
Oh, you thought the 20+ whiffs were real? And you made biscuits for the table? Oh, sweet summer child. That bread ainât gotta be buttered by MĂĄrquez. Itâs so dry. Get used to it.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs DET (ND) â 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks â 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 85 pitches.
The third was an inning of torture with all five runs coming on six hits in play, but that doesnât mean Pfaadt was stellar otherwise. Yes, his curveball and sweeper were looking solid and his sinker was sitting down-and-away effectively to LHB, Iâm worried about the cutter over the plate + the lack of four-seamers and changeups making a difference. Consider this performance more in line with a PQS.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs NYY (L) â 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks â 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna run into trouble early and late. Oh no, so Gilbert is bad now? Oh, not the case at all. His new cutter is super cool at 91 mph, allowing him to play the Canibal McSanchez game upstairs, though I am surprised to see the slider lose some velocity in favor of more drop â I think it benefited from the extra velo at 88 mph than the need for 3-4âł more depth (just 1/13 whiffs here). Regardless, we keep starting him n all. Whatareyagonnado.
Brayan Bello (BOS) @ HOU (L) â 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks â 18 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 92 pitches.
The Astros came out swinging and itâs always dissonant to see a Gallows Pole come with just two strikeouts. No, those whiffs from the ânew curveâ, which is awfully similar to the sweeper heâs had for a bit, and neither are particularly inspiring. I donât think he pitched terribly, though heâs certain to hold off on four-seamers in the future after the few he threw returned 3/8 hits. With the Brewers, Cardinals, and Tigers up next, this could very well still work for Bello, but witnessing less velocity and worse movement on everything, itâs hard to be sold that heâll replicate this absurd SwStr rate and become a steady arm.
Brandon Williamson (CIN) vs PIT (L) â 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks â 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 94 pitches.
Seriously?! Look, I understand if it didnât go smoothly, but why do I have to see you all the way down here? Why did you have to earn the most ER of any SP? Wait, the roundups are sorted by ER? Always have been. I was really digging Williamsonâs cutter inside to RHB with changeups down, and some beautifully spotted sweepers away to LHB, but all of that doesnât matter when four runs can hit the board off two pitches during back-to-back HRs in the second. Yes, they were both off four-seamers (four of his six hits were, after all), and itâs arguably his worst offering. Heâll get the Marlins on Monday and Iâm totally fine ignoring that one, even if my gut tells me this start wasnât as far from decency as the line may seem.
Game of the Day
Cam Schlittler vs. George Kirby â Iâm just so obsessed with Schlitterâs cutter and I also hope for Kirby to throw sinkers inside to RHB. Please. JUST ONE GAME.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? â Iâve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? â Join my morning Twitch.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am â 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Photo by Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
Andrew Painter (PHI) vs WSN (W) â 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks â 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 84 pitches.
Iâve heard about Painter for years and itâs thrilling to finally get a proper look at the long-time prospect in his MLB debut against the Nationals. The results did not disappoint â 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks â 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 84 pitches â and I canât quite decide if this is what weâll get moving forward, but I have to ask, can I actually get an accurate view of Painterâs canvas from this one start against a poor lineup?
I donât love starting pitchers in MLB debuts as they often pitch differently than when theyâll have their feet under them following a few starts, and itâs difficult to tell you this is who he will be, for better or for worse. So what do you do? Hold on and enjoy the ride, of course. He has the situation, a cut-fastball at 96/97 mph that isnât bad, allowing for an array of good-not-elite secondaries to be successful. The whole package should work with 88 mph sliders with good sweep but annoying lift, an 81 mph curve he throws with confidence, and a solid changeup that stays down to LHB. Thereâs also the correct approach with sinkers inside to RHB that we barely saw, given the Nationalsâ affinity for left-handed bats.
Heâll get the Giants and Sneks up next, and we can only hope for the best. If the good pitch separation sticks, this will work. The Shag Rug exists and weâll get a few happy mistakes, but thatâs okay. This will help more than hurt.
Sidenote: Happy April Foolsâ day! I hope you enjoyed our yearly tradition where Justin Paradis writes his own version of the SP Roundup and I create his graphic.
Letâs see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Max Fried (NYY) @ SEA (W) â 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks â 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 90 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Velo is still down a tick + two on the cutter, but the command is stellar and he cruised in Seattle. Itâs fun when Fried actually produces early in the year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs CLE (ND) â 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks â 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 87 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. 87 pitches and six frames in his first outing of the year. I donât think heâs going to get babied, yâall. His velocity is down 1-2 ticks, but donât be alarmed. Itâs the first of the year and itâs still quality.
JosĂ© Soriano (LAA) @ CHC (W) â 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks â 10 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 90 pitches.
Duuuuuude, this is awesome. He pulled off the sinker in favor of four-seamers, embracing its extra vert and flat attack angle for 71% strikes and a ridiculous 48% CSW. The curve was fantastic and stayed down, the splitter earned a handful of whiffs, and this was a fun outing against the Cubs. The biggest concern? Just four strikeouts and two hits. In other words, he had the good graces of Koufax across 67% grounders (13 outs on 15 BIP), which is sure to regress given the Angelsâ defense n all. Obviously a pitcher needs hit prevention to have a beneficial outing and maybe Soriano is pitching more effectively to keep the BABIP lower. Why does he have to face Atlanta + Yankees + Padres next? I understand that you feel like you have to, but thatâs a tough sell.
Andre Pallante (STL) vs NYM (W) â 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks â 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.
Wait, this worked? Jeez, take this Gold Star. Heâs made a major transition toward sinkers and sliders against RHB, saving the four-seamer for LHB where it was taken by the passive Mets lineup, and Koufax smiled upon him. This isnât your next big pickup.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) vs LAA (ND) â 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks â 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.
The velocity is still down (just under 91 mph), but we saw more cut and 19/20âł of vert with big separation on the cutter, and weâre here for that. Iâm stoked he was able to produce in some fashion here, even it was super strange to see four walks. Thatâs so not him, and the 61% overall strike rate doesnât match.
Bubba Chandler (PIT) @ CIN (ND) â 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 6 BBs, 6 Ks â 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 81 pitches.
I know you have some nerves given this is your first start out of camp in your career, but jeeeeez, can you get that four-seamer a little lower, please? Itâs such a dope pitch when he doesnât return 58% strikes across 74% usage. 17âł of vert at a low arm angle and cut and good extension and a flat attack angle AND 99 MPH. Just not so high and non-competitive, alright? We barely saw the change and slider here, which are also excellent pitches, but he couldnât wrangle them either, especially the slider (1/8 strikes, missing well upstairs). Thatâs not him, and I canât wait for the games ahead that donât come with so many free passes. But it was a no-hitter! Donât you dare compare him to Ejax. DONâT YOU DARE.
Ryan Feltner (COL) @ TOR (ND) â 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks â 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 47 pitches.
Feltner was struck by a 106mph comebacker, leaving this one early after sitting two ticks higher. Itâs obviously terrible leaving a game like this, but to do so when youâre showing off how much better you are is simply not fair.
Max Scherzer (TOR) vs COL (W) â 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks â 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 83 pitches.
FINALLY. An easy stream that goes exactly as it should. I donât know what took so long. Much appreciated, Scherzer. No, you donât need to hold for the Dodgers, but it may be worthwhile with the Twins and @ ARI after.
Casey Mize (DET) @ ARI (ND) â 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks â 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 93 pitches.
Oh hey, it was alright! His splitter cooked against LHB for 32% SwStr and 68% strikes, while the slider was unexpectedly great at 44% CSW and 72% strikes. Not the best fastballs all around, but if Mize has sliders and splitters on point like this, the Twins and Marlins may roll over easily.
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs BOS (W) â 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks â 8 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 78 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a King Cole. A little more erratic than usual from Brown with his sinker inside the zone (read: not armside), but the Sawx were sleeping at the plate, accepting a 44% called strike rate on the pitch, with two strikeouts looking. How nice of them.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) @ LAD (ND) â 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks â 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 74 pitches.
Is he okay? I was hyped after Bibee flexed a four inch boost in vert with his four-seamer to 18âł last time out, and we actually saw that fantastic pitch here againâŠfor about ten of his fastballs. He had another 4/5 that were far worse and the jury is still out if Bibee will have a much better heater across the season. He also seems to be throwing two different cutters now, which is surely going to get reclassified as an 88/89 mph cutter and a 84-87mph slider, and the slide piece was much better than the harder, high vert cutter. But letâs be real here. After all the haze of his last start, to see Bibee survive in Los Angeles and still give us hope for a better arsenal is really cool. Guess weâre letting it fly for a two-step against the Royals and Atlanta next week, right?
Zach Eflin (BAL) vs TEX (ND) â 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks â 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 74 pitches.
I was so excited for this start. Eflin was sitting 92/93 mph in the spring (over a tick up!) and came out hot, fanning four of his first six batters and looking like the same stud of March. Then the velo took a bit of a hit in the third, and another in the fourth, and despite fanning seven in eleven outs, he left the game early with an elbow issue. I went from stoked and looking ahead to a trio of starts @CHW, vs. SFG, @CLE, to pure pain. Heâs going to hit the IL yâall, and you should just drop him. Sigh.
Kodai Senga (NYM) @ STL (L) â 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks â 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
Remember how we were reporting that Senga was throwing harder in the spring? Yeah, that wasnât smoke and mirrors. The dude was 97/98 mph across 92 pitches here, actually earning whiffs on the pitch at a 19% clip. The cutter was also benefiting at 90/91 mph and 38% CSW, and the ghost-fork, sweeper, and slider boasted eight whiffs and four punchouts, too. Heâs back yaâll. HEâS SO BACK. Heâs even doing the Canibal McSanchez and itâs masking the four-seamer exactly how we want him to. Get pumped for a date in Oracle Park up next.
Aaron Civale (ATH) @ ATL (W) â 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks â 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.
Despite losing 1-2 ticks that Civale really canât lose at this point in his career, he stuck it out for a Win. Those backdoor cutters and curves were clutch against LHB, but you know who we really have to thank. Koufax, you rascal.
Brandon Woodruff (MIL) vs TBR (W) â 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks â 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 67 pitches.
Iâm thrilled to tell you that this felt exactly like the Woodruff you know from last season. Heâs likely going to be limited like this a fair amount, and yet, itâs still productive. Iâd feel great having Woody at this point.
Shane McClanahan (TBR) @ MIL (L) â 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks â 7 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 79 pitches.
Heâs such a good pitcher. Or at least was absurd through four before he walked two with a single and couldnât quite close the door with two outs, leading to all three runs coming in. Ugh. He was likely gassed even if the velocity wasnât showing it, and it may be a few starts before he can cruise without a lapse of command past pitch 65. But that changeup, yâall. 41% CSW and 77% strikes. 95/96 mph velocity (not 94!). Legit sliders is the right spots. Heâs a SWATCH with more velocity. Iâm a McClanaFan.
Janson Junk (MIA) vs CHW (ND) â 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks â 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 79 pitches.
He was up 1-2 ticks here with 19âł of vert and a 1.8 HAVAA andâŠwait. Junk? At 95/96 mph? With a kick-change and 17âł of ride + an 88 mph hyro slider with -5/6 sweep? Uhhhh, this is elite stuff. Dude. WHAT. That four-seamer is blowing my mind right now. Sure, he didnât locate it upstairs and oddly refused to throw it to RHB (16% usage despite those marks?!), but Iâm kinda in disbelief right now. Heâll get the Reds Carpet on Monday and Iâm heavily considering this. Itâs clear that heâs a vastly different pitcher now.
Logan Webb (SFG) @ SDP (ND) â 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks â 10 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 104 pitches.
Oh wow, our first PQS of the season, and of course itâs from Webb. His changeup was way off here at just 35% strikes and heâll find his rhythm soon, donât you worry.
Zack Littell (WSH) @ PHI (L) â 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks â 7 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 75 pitches.
This game began with PJâs effort as an opener and ended with the wake-up call of Littell entering in the sixth for 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 K across 75 pitches. HAISTBMBWT?! Oh, you were hoping for a vulture Win? Did you forget it was Littell, or that he pitched for the Nationals, or that he was facing the Phillies? I DIDNâT THINK, OKAY?!
Erick Fedde (CHW) @ MIA (L) â 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks â 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 80 pitches.
Huge props to Fedde for shelving the four-seamer and going cutter upstairs with changeups down to LHB, but even if you squeeze the most out of the lemon, itâs not enough for a full glass. That almost seems wise. Thereâs something there, Iâm sure of it.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) @ BAL (ND) â 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks â 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 79 pitches.
He got the first two outs of the fifth with ease and three straight hits knocked him out of the game within grasp of a dub. Sigh. At least his stick neck is a thing of the past and his slider is back to being the dopest of dope at 92 mph with a 32% SwStr rate and dotting the corner. As it is often in the first week or two, deGrom was more gassed than usual in the fifth and donât expect that to last throughout the year.
JosĂ© Suarez (ATL) vs ATH (L) â 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks â 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 66 pitches.
This wasnât his best, but even if it was, would it be any different? Probably. Yeah, maybe like a run or two. Welp, see ya later.
GermĂĄn MĂĄrquez (SDP) vs SFG (ND) â 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks â 2 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 65 pitches.
Oh, you thought the 20+ whiffs were real? And you made biscuits for the table? Oh, sweet summer child. That bread ainât gotta be buttered by MĂĄrquez. Itâs so dry. Get used to it.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs DET (ND) â 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks â 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 85 pitches.
The third was an inning of torture with all five runs coming on six hits in play, but that doesnât mean Pfaadt was stellar otherwise. Yes, his curveball and sweeper were looking solid and his sinker was sitting down-and-away effectively to LHB, Iâm worried about the cutter over the plate + the lack of four-seamers and changeups making a difference. Consider this performance more in line with a PQS.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs NYY (L) â 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks â 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna run into trouble early and late. Oh no, so Gilbert is bad now? Oh, not the case at all. His new cutter is super cool at 91 mph, allowing him to play the Canibal McSanchez game upstairs, though I am surprised to see the slider lose some velocity in favor of more drop â I think it benefited from the extra velo at 88 mph than the need for 3-4âł more depth (just 1/13 whiffs here). Regardless, we keep starting him n all. Whatareyagonnado.
Brayan Bello (BOS) @ HOU (L) â 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks â 18 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 92 pitches.
The Astros came out swinging and itâs always dissonant to see a Gallows Pole come with just two strikeouts. No, those whiffs from the ânew curveâ, which is awfully similar to the sweeper heâs had for a bit, and neither are particularly inspiring. I donât think he pitched terribly, though heâs certain to hold off on four-seamers in the future after the few he threw returned 3/8 hits. With the Brewers, Cardinals, and Tigers up next, this could very well still work for Bello, but witnessing less velocity and worse movement on everything, itâs hard to be sold that heâll replicate this absurd SwStr rate and become a steady arm.
Brandon Williamson (CIN) vs PIT (L) â 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks â 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 94 pitches.
Seriously?! Look, I understand if it didnât go smoothly, but why do I have to see you all the way down here? Why did you have to earn the most ER of any SP? Wait, the roundups are sorted by ER? Always have been. I was really digging Williamsonâs cutter inside to RHB with changeups down, and some beautifully spotted sweepers away to LHB, but all of that doesnât matter when four runs can hit the board off two pitches during back-to-back HRs in the second. Yes, they were both off four-seamers (four of his six hits were, after all), and itâs arguably his worst offering. Heâll get the Marlins on Monday and Iâm totally fine ignoring that one, even if my gut tells me this start wasnât as far from decency as the line may seem.
Game of the Day
Cam Schlittler vs. George Kirby â Iâm just so obsessed with Schlitterâs cutter and I also hope for Kirby to throw sinkers inside to RHB. Please. JUST ONE GAME.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? â Iâve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
