Jake's Predictions (incl outrights) 25/26: Staked 630pts | Returned 671.63pts | P/L +41.63pts | ROI 6.6%
Football betting tips: World Cup
Mexico vs South Africa - Thursday 20:00
1pt Teboho Mokoena to be carded at 11/4 (General)
0.5pt Raúl Jiménez to be carded at 10/1 (bet365)
South Korea vs Czechia - Friday 03:00
1pt The Draw at 11/5 (Betfred)
Canada vs Bosnia - Friday 20:00
1pt Derek Cornelius to be carded at 7/2 (General)
0.75pts Cyle Larin to be carded at 11/2 (bet365)
USA vs Paraguay - Saturday 02:00
2pts USA to win at evens (General)
*Tips to be added throughout first round of group stage
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair
Naïve. Stupid. Brave. Call it what you will, but I will be previewing all 104 matches at the 2026 World Cup in this column. I may have bitten off more than I can chew, but I am excited to get stuck in.
We have you covered on Sporting Life with tips and analysis on all 48 teams, as well as outright previews, all of which can be found in our Betting Guide.
The tournament gets under way in Mexico on Thursday, so that's where we begin a 104-game journey that hopefully ends with me confidently tipping England to win the World Cup in the final column...
Mexico vs South Africa
ITV1 - Thursday, 20:00 BST
Venue: Mexico City Stadium
Live odds, form and stats
Co-hosts Mexico are strongly fancied (2/5 and shorter) to get off to a perfect start in a re-match of the 2010 curtain raiser in South Africa. I do expect them to win and Joe has the home victory covered in his match preview.
We'll head down the player card route given the referee appointment and the tendency for these openers to see plenty of cards. The referee is Brazilian Wilton Sampaio who is excellent for card backers, averaging 5.0 cards per game across his last five seasons.
The last four World Cup curtain-raisers have seen 6-2-4-4 cards respectively, while Mexico and South Africa are attritional in their approaches.
South Africa midfielder TEBOHO MOKOENA isn't the juiciest of prices, but at 11/4 TO BE CARDED, he still rates solid value in my book.
Playing in midfield, he gets through a lot of dirty work, and ultimately collects plenty of cards. So far this season for his club side Mamelodi Sundowns, he's been carded eight times in just 23 appearances.
Last summer in the Club World Cup up against high-class opponents, he picked up two cards in three games, while his record for South Africa is equally as impressive, managing three in nine qualifiers and two in four AFCON appearances.
At a massive price, I'm also willing to chance Mexico's main man - RAÚL JIMÉNEZ - TO BE CARDED.
He's a whopping 10/1, making him the biggest priced outfield player, and I can't get my head around that.
Jiménez has been a foul-machine all season for Fulham, committing an average of 1.88 per 90, leading to him being carded five times in the top flight at an average of 0.20 per 90.
For Mexico he is less prolific in terms of cards, but at last summer's Gold Cup he committed 2.22 fouls per 90 as Mexico ran out winners, and his aggressive and physical playing style is bound to draw the attention of the referee as the co-hosts look to make the perfect start in this game.
There is also the possibility that he is too revved up, as after all, for most of the Mexican players this will be one of the biggest games of their lives - a World Cup opener in front of their own fans.
At 10/1, the price is just too big to pass up.
Score prediction: Mexico 2-0 South Africa (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 10:45 BST (10/06/26)
South Korea vs Czechia
ITV1 - Friday, 03:00 BST
Venue: Estadio Guadalajara, Zapopan
Live odds, form and stats
For those of you who will be staying up to watch this one, I wish you luck. I can't see it being a barnstormer.
Both South Korea and Czechia have flaws and very few strengths, and this could be the classic first-round group game that sees both sides feel each other out and take a point.
I do think there will be plenty of draws in these opening games in groups where there is one weak side like in Group A.
That's because as long as both South Korea and Czechia beat South Africa, they will have a great chance of advancing, while a point apiece in this game and a win over the underdogs will all-but guarantee a spot in the knockouts.
Perhaps I'm reaching too much. This is the World Cup after all, teams don't just shake hands on a draw, right? Well, either way, these are two closely matched teams who will likely play out a tight game neither wants to lose.
THE DRAW is worth backing at 11/5.
Score prediction: South Korea 1-1 Czechia (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 10:45 BST (10/06/26)
Canada vs Bosnia
BBC One - Friday, 20:00 BST
Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto
Live odds, form and stats
Canada, one of the co-hosts at the 2026 World Cup, get their tournament underway against Bosnia in what could be a wide-open Group B. Playing in front of their home fans, we should expect a full-blooded and thunderous approach from Jesse Marsch's Canucks.
They play a high-press and really do get stuck in, which leads to cards. You only have to look at their recent friendlies to see that. Across their last seven friendlies - that's the key word here - Canada's matches have averaged 5.0 cards per game, with four red cards shown in that time, three to Canada.
With a good referee appointment for cards in Argentina Facundo Tello, who has averaged 5.45 cards per game across his career, we'll chance some player cards, with CYLE LARIN my favourite bet at 11/2 TO BE CARDED.
EFL fans will be familiar with Larin and his game, with a real physicality and presence in leading the line, which does lead to fouls committed and cards. In the second half of the Championship season while on-loan at Southampton he picked up four cards (0.21 per 90) and committed 1.69 fouls per 90. That included cards in both high-stakes play-off semi final matches.
Prior to that he had averaged 0.30 cards per 90 over two seasons in Spain with Mallorca, and I do think he'll be even more pumped than usual given this is a home opener of a World Cup, the stakes are high. He also warmed up nicely with a card in their final friendly against Republic of Ireland.
At a shorter price, on-loan Rangers centre-back DEREK CORNELIUS looks value TO BE CARDED at 7/2. He's had limited minutes this season due to injury, but has a remarkable card record for club and country since September 2025.
He's started 15 times for club and country - seven for Canada and only eight for Rangers! - and has collected seven cards at an average of 0.53 per 90. He is exceptionally rash as a defender and is put in some really precarious positions by the style in which Canada like to play under Marsch, shown by the fact he has been carded in five of the seven starts for his country since last September.
All of those were friendlies by the way, and if you needed anymore convincing, his 24/25 campaign with Marseille saw nine yellows and two reds... Bosnia's transitional football also helps this pick, as does the wily Edin Dzeko, who could 'old man' the Canadian defenders in this opener.
Score prediction: Canada 1-1 Bosnia (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 15:35 BST (10/06/26)
USA vs Paraguay
BBC One - Saturday, 02:00 BST
Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood
Live odds, form and stats
Anyone who read my Group D preview will know I think co-hosts USA could go well at this tournament, while I have doubts around Paraguay. The South Americans generally don't travel well, shown by the fact they have won just four of their last 21 games outside of Paraguay against a mix of opponents.
It will be Poch-ball - high-pressing attack-minded football - against deep-block, but I really like the look of a USA WIN in this opener at even money.
Recent friendly results don't look too clever, losing three of the last four, but since September 2025 they've returned five wins and a draw in 10. The important thing about this run though, is that, while these are friendlies, the US have run through a gauntlet of top sides as part of the preparation for this tournament.
The average FIFA World Ranking of the 10 sides they have faced has been 18.8, taking on European powerhouses Germany, Portugal and Belgium, as well as African giants Senegal and Asian juggernauts Japan and South Korea.
Performances over those games have been good too according to the underlying data, and that run did include a home win against Paraguay too, and perhaps the most important two factors in this game is the depth of the US squad and the injury suffered to Paraguay's talisman Julio Enciso.
Score prediction: USA 2-1 Paraguay (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 15:35 BST (10/06/26)
